Monday Market Minute | Oct 19, 2026

Housing rolls over and CREA cuts its forecast a third time as Brent reaches a five-month high — with September CPI and the BoC's business survey out today

What Moved

National housing data turned lower last week after four broadly flat months. CREA's September figures, released October 16, showed sales down 2.3% on the month and 7.7% on the year, with the MLS Home Price Index down 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. CREA cut its 2026 forecast for the third time, to 444,530 sales (−5.2%); CREA's commentary cited the jump in fixed mortgage rates and a Bank of Canada "widely expected" to hike. CMHC's September starts were firmer, up 3% on a revised August. On October 14, a 131-unit Markham condominium project went into receivership, with lender Meridian claiming $57.73 million and 21 liens totalling $11.42 million registered against it. Oil kept climbing: Brent futures settled at $109.86 on October 16, the highest since May 19, after 12 attacks on shipping in seven days, with Hormuz traffic about 70% below pre-war levels. Western Canadian Select's discount reached −$25.55 on October 14. In the US, September CPI came in at 3.6% on October 13, lifting market odds of an October Fed hike to about 44%. Final softwood lumber review results cut combined duties to 24.75% from 35.16%, or about 34.75% including the 10% Section 232 lumber tariff.

Why It Matters

September looks like the month rates reached housing. CREA's average price fell 1.6% on the year, but that figure reflects the mix of homes sold; the benchmark decline of 3.4% is the better measure of price change. For private mortgage lenders and MIC investors, a benchmark falling alongside slower sales and higher fixed rates is the transmission channel to collateral that matters most.

CREA's reference to a hike is industry commentary, not Bank of Canada guidance; no hike has occurred. The Bank's deliberations, published September 16, said energy spillover "could require a monetary policy response." The Fed has already moved once, and a 3.6% US CPI print keeps that pressure on. In US private credit, Fitch reported non-traded BDC redemption requests averaging 9.8%, easing and largely resubmissions — a sign that pressure on semi-liquid vehicles is moderating, not resolved.

Signal to Watch

Today brings September CPI, after August's 3.0% headline with core trim and median measures near 2%, and the Bank of Canada's Q3 Business Outlook Survey alongside its consumer expectations survey. On October 21, the comment period closes on the CSA's proposed amendments to the listed issuer financing exemption, which would codify the 2025 blanket order. Then the week after: the Bank of Canada's October 28 decision and Monetary Policy Report, with August GDP due at month-end.