Monday Market Minute | Oct 05, 2026

US import bans land, July GDP stalls and the TSX closes September down 2.85% — with September jobs due Friday

What Moved

The Section 338 regime took its next step on September 29, when US import bans took effect on roughly US$967 million of Canadian goods, about 87% of it alcohol, according to CBC; no new Canadian response had been reported by week's end. The same day, July GDP was reported flat at 0.0%, with manufacturing down 0.9% on an unplanned refinery outage and retail down 1.0%. The August flash came in at +0.2% — a figure that will only partly capture the 50% duties that began August 22. The 10-year Government of Canada yield touched 3.99% on September 29, its highest since at least mid-July, and the TSX finished September down 2.85% at a one-month low of 35,235.87. Brent futures rose about 4% to $102.31 on October 1, and on October 4 Iran's Ghalibaf said Hormuz would stay closed until the US met seven conditions. The loonie weakened to 1.4243 per US dollar on October 1, after a quarter in which it softened even as oil rose.

Why It Matters

Q3 is now closed, and most data released during it describe the economy before the August break in trade talks. July's flat print and a modest August flash are the first monthly reads from the other side of the summer rebound. That matters for anyone reading Q3 private fund statements in the coming weeks: quarter-end marks reflect a quarter in which long-term yields rose and public equities fell in its final month, while the growth data are still catching up.

The picture is not uniform across sectors. CBRE's Q3 figures showed national industrial availability falling 30 basis points to 5.2%, the largest quarterly drop in five years, and office vacancy at 16.7% after a fifth straight quarter of positive absorption, as reported by CMP and MPA citing CBRE. LNG Canada's Phase 2 reached a final investment decision on September 29, at roughly 28 Mtpa and about C$32 billion. Vancouver housing stayed soft, with the September benchmark at $1,075,900, 5.5% below a year earlier. In US private credit, one large semi-liquid vehicle reported Q3 redemption requests of about 16.8% of shares against a 5% cap. Rates and tariffs reach real assets sector by sector, not all at once.

Signal to Watch

Friday's September labour force survey (October 9) is the main event, following August's loss of 42,000 jobs. Before that, Toronto's September housing figures land October 6 and Rentals.ca's September report follows October 7, after 23 consecutive months of annual declines in asking rents. Markets close next Monday for Thanksgiving, with the October 28 Bank of Canada decision still the reference point beyond.