Monday Market Minute | Sep 28, 2026

Macklem sizes the tariff hit, the two-year yield peaks and small-business confidence slips below 50 — with US import bans due tomorrow

What Moved

Governor Macklem's Halifax speech on September 21 framed the week. As reported by The Hub and CTV, he said that if the new US tariffs persist, fourth-quarter growth could be roughly halved to below 1%, and that with crude near US$100, inflation edges up and the risk of persistence has risen. He offered no explicit rate guidance. Later in the week, the two-year Government of Canada yield reached 3.40% on September 23, its highest since at least mid-July, and the TSX fell 584 points that day to 35,751.43. CFIB's September long-term index then dropped roughly ten points to 47.9, with the short-term index at 43.3 and 62% of small firms citing fuel costs; the Nanos index slipped to 49.86 in the four weeks to September 18. Avenue Living Core Trust extended a redemption delay in place since March, according to the manager's own disclosure, with fair value stated at $6.6 billion. And on September 26, President Trump rejected Iran's UN General Assembly offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures settled at $104.82 on September 17.

Why It Matters

The Fed raised its target range 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, its first hike in more than three years, and the Bank of Canada's deliberations, published the same day, said energy spillover "could require a monetary policy response." Markets have since priced the October 28 decision as close to a coin flip, narrowly favouring a hike, while RBC and Desjardins still expect a hold. That is market pricing, not Bank of Canada guidance.

For private market investors, two threads are worth separating. The first is the cost of capital: private real estate and private credit were largely underwritten for an easing or on-hold path, and a two-year yield up roughly 54 basis points since mid-July changes the arithmetic for refinancing and discount rates. The second is liquidity structure. Avenue Living's extension sits alongside a large US semi-liquid private-credit vehicle that has held its redemption cap at 5% for a third quarter. Both limit when investors can get their money back — which is why redemption terms deserve as much attention as the stated return.

Signal to Watch

Tomorrow, US import bans on packaged alcohol, a dairy annex and large motorcycles take effect under the Section 338 regime, and July GDP lands the same day after a flash estimate of 0.0%. Quarter-end on September 30 sets the marks Q3 fund reporting will rest on. Later come CBRE's Q3 industrial and office reads (October 1–2), Greater Vancouver's September housing figures (October 2), and a scheduled Bank of Canada speech on housing on October 1.