Monday Market Minute | Aug 10, 2026

July adds 75,000 jobs and unemployment falls to 6.4% — while Toronto and Vancouver housing stays soft

What Moved

Friday's July Labour Force Survey was the week's headline. Statistics Canada reported employment up 75,000, against a consensus of roughly 15,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.4% — the lowest since July 2024. Youth unemployment held steady at 12.6%, Ontario added 52,000 jobs, and employment is now up about 181,000 since April. Coming on top of the Q2 advance estimate near 3.4% annualized, the summer data has run well ahead of the Bank of Canada's July projections.

Housing told a quieter story. Toronto's July sales were down 0.9% year-over-year at 5,995, and the benchmark price (HPI) was 4.6% lower than a year earlier. Greater Vancouver's sales fell 9.8% to 2,061, with the benchmark at $1,088,800. Rentals.ca reported a national average asking rent of $2,037 for July, down 4.0% — the 22nd consecutive annual decline.

Markets leaned toward risk. The TSX rose 1.63% on August 4 to 35,801.59, and the S&P 500 closed above 7,700 for the first time the same day. Brent futures fell 7% on the week to $83.55 on hopes that Hormuz would reopen, giving back part of July's spike. Gold, unusually, rose alongside equities — up 7.3% on the week to $4,340.50.

Why It Matters

The labour market is now the strongest part of the Canadian data. That lowers the near-term risk of a consumer-led credit problem, which matters for private lenders and for real estate income that depends on tenants staying employed.

It also complicates the rate picture. A firm labour market and a strong quarter leave the Bank of Canada less cushion to keep looking through energy inflation if oil moves higher again.

The housing numbers are a reminder that a healing job market does not automatically lift asset prices. For private real estate and mortgage strategies, the relevant inputs are rents and collateral values, and both remain soft even as employment improves. When reading these releases, the benchmark (HPI) is the better measure of price direction; average prices move with the mix of homes sold.

Signal to Watch

This is a big week for private-asset valuations. Canada's large pension plans begin reporting half-year results — OTPP, OMERS, CPP Investments and La Caisse — and the comparison between their private-equity and public-equity returns is one of the few public windows into how private marks are tracking public markets. The Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy's June insolvency data and CAIRP's second-quarter statistics follow, a check on household stress beneath a strong jobs number. July CPI arrives next Monday.