Monday Market Minute | Nov 24, 2025

Housing cools seasonally — but 2025 marks a genuine recovery year

What Moved

November housing data followed typical seasonal patterns with declining activity, but the year-to-date picture was unambiguously positive. National sales volumes were up 14% through October compared to the same period in 2024. Average prices rose 4.7% nationally, with single-family homes in suburban and secondary markets leading gains. The condo segment in Toronto showed signs of bottoming, with inventory absorption rates improving in October and November. CMHC projected that 2025 housing starts would finish near 240,000 units — above 2024 levels but still below the 300,000+ required to close the structural supply gap.

Why It Matters

The housing recovery validated the thesis that private real estate strategies built during the 2023-2024 downturn would deliver strong vintage returns. MIC lenders that maintained discipline through the cycle reported the strongest origination year in their histories. Residential developers that broke ground during the uncertainty had projects approaching completion in a recovering market. For investors, the housing data reinforced a timeless pattern: the best private market vintages are built in uncertainty and realized in recovery. The 2025 data provided the recovery confirmation.

Signal to Watch

Immigration policy adjustments for 2026 and their projected impact on housing demand would be a critical input for private real estate fund managers positioning their portfolios for the next 12-18 months.

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