Monday Market Minute | Sep 29, 2025

Fall housing push gains traction — sales volumes approach pre-pandemic norms

What Moved

CREA's September data showed the strongest month of activity since early 2022. National home sales rose 18% year-over-year, with the Greater Toronto Area posting a 22% increase and Greater Vancouver up 16%. The combination of the BoC's September rate cut, improved affordability, and accumulated pent-up demand from two years of market suppression drove buyer re-engagement. Average prices rose modestly — 3.4% nationally — suggesting a recovering market rather than a speculative one. New listings also increased, providing the inventory needed to sustain healthy transaction volumes.

Why It Matters

The housing recovery reached a tipping point that validated several private market strategies simultaneously. Residential developers saw improved pre-construction absorption, unlocking project financing. MIC lenders maintained strong origination pipelines as mortgage demand surged. Real estate-focused PE funds marked up land holdings as development site values responded to improved feasibility metrics. For private markets investors, the housing recovery was the single most important macro development of Q3 — it affected valuations, lending volumes, and consumer confidence across the portfolio.

Signal to Watch

Whether the momentum would sustain through the traditionally quieter Q4 months or follow the seasonal pattern of deceleration, which would test whether the recovery was cyclical or structural.

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