Monday Market Minute | Mar 31, 2025

Spring housing market opens cautiously as rate relief meets buyer hesitancy

What Moved

CREA's March data painted a picture of cautious re-engagement. New listings rose 12% nationally compared to March 2024, and sales volumes ticked up in Toronto, Vancouver, and Ottawa. However, activity remained well below the 10-year average for spring openings. Buyers were motivated by lower mortgage rates but restrained by job security concerns amid trade disruption. The condo segment in Toronto continued to lag, with inventory-to-sales ratios at multi-year highs, while single-family homes in suburban and secondary markets showed relative strength.

Why It Matters

For private real estate investors, the bifurcated market created selective opportunities. MIC lenders focused on low-rise residential construction found strong demand from builders racing to deliver into a market with structural undersupply. Condo-focused portfolios faced valuation pressure as pre-construction absorption rates slowed. The mortgage renewal wave continued to generate refinancing volume for alternative lenders, maintaining healthy origination pipelines even as the broader market hesitated.

Signal to Watch

CMHC's April housing starts data would reveal whether builders were reading the recovery as durable or waiting for clearer trade policy signals before breaking ground.

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