Monday Market Minute | Jan 13, 2025

Housing market stirs early as rate relief meets pent-up demand

What Moved

CREA's preliminary January data showed new listings rising across major metro markets, with Toronto and Vancouver seeing the earliest signs of buyer re-engagement since the rate hiking cycle began. CMHC's annual housing outlook projected a gradual recovery through 2025, contingent on continued rate easing. Mortgage pre-approvals at major lenders ticked up for the third consecutive month.

Why It Matters

For private real estate investors, the housing thaw has layered implications. Residential development projects that stalled during the rate pause are returning to feasibility. MIC lenders reported renewed demand for bridge financing as builders repositioned inventory. The mortgage renewal wall — millions of ultra-low-rate 2020-era mortgages resetting in 2025 — remained a wildcard that could either constrain household spending or redirect capital toward alternative financing structures.

Signal to Watch

StatsCan's December housing starts data, due later in the month, would reveal whether builders had begun responding to improved economics or remained cautious given trade uncertainty.

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