Monday Market Minute | Nov 18, 2024

Tariff threats loom — Canadian PE portfolios stress-test trade exposure

What Moved

The incoming Trump administration amplified tariff rhetoric in mid-November, with reports suggesting 25% tariffs on all Canadian imports could be implemented by early 2025. Canadian PE sponsors with trade-exposed portfolio companies began formal stress-testing, evaluating revenue concentration, supply chain dependencies, and pricing power in a tariff scenario. The TMX composite index underperformed US benchmarks as trade uncertainty weighed on Canadian equities.

Why It Matters

Trade policy risk was the most significant new variable for Canadian private equity in years. Companies with significant US export revenue — common in manufacturing, natural resources, and agriculture — faced margin compression or lost competitiveness under tariffs. PE sponsors needed to evaluate hedging strategies, supply chain diversification, and in some cases, accelerated US-based expansion to circumvent border costs.

Signal to Watch

Whether Canadian business groups and the federal government could negotiate exemptions or phase-in periods before tariff implementation. The CUSMA (formerly NAFTA) framework provided some structure, but executive orders could bypass trade agreements. The negotiation dynamics would unfold through early 2025.

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