Monday Market Minute | Oct 07, 2024

Housing recovery broadens beyond Toronto and Vancouver

What Moved

CREA October data showed the housing recovery broadening into secondary markets. Ottawa, Montreal, and several mid-sized Ontario cities reported sales volumes up 15–25% year-over-year, outpacing the gateway cities that had led the initial upturn. The three BoC rate cuts totalling 75 basis points had improved qualification thresholds, bringing previously sidelined buyers back into the market. National prices firmed modestly.

Why It Matters

A broad-based recovery was structurally healthier than a Toronto-Vancouver-only phenomenon. For private real estate investors, the geographic broadening opened development and lending opportunities in markets with better risk-return profiles — lower land costs, less regulatory complexity, and stronger population growth relative to existing supply. Secondary-market MICs and development funds merited attention.

Signal to Watch

The October 23 BoC decision loomed large. Markets had begun pricing in a possible 50bp jumbo cut, which would represent a significant acceleration. If delivered, it would add further fuel to a housing market already gaining momentum — a dynamic that warranted both excitement and caution.

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