Monday Market Minute | Sep 23, 2024

US election uncertainty builds — and Canada watches closely

What Moved

With the US presidential election six weeks away, polling tightened and policy uncertainty rose. Both candidates proposed platforms with significant implications for Canada: trade policy, energy regulation, border security, and tax treatment of cross-border investment. Markets began pricing in volatility, with the VIX rising and cross-border deal activity pausing as participants awaited clarity.

Why It Matters

Canada's economic relationship with the US made the election outcome a first-order concern for private market investors. Tariff threats — particularly from the Trump campaign — could reshape North American supply chains and impact Canadian export-oriented companies in PE portfolios. Energy policy divergence could affect infrastructure and cleantech investments. Currency volatility added another layer of complexity to cross-border allocations.

Signal to Watch

Defence, energy, and manufacturing sectors were the most election-sensitive in Canadian private markets. Investors positioned in these sectors needed to stress-test portfolios against both outcomes — a discipline that would prove valuable regardless of which scenario materialized.

The Monday Market Minute is published weekly by Alts Insider for educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. See our full disclaimer.