Monday Market Minute | May 13, 2024

Bidding wars return to Toronto — the housing recovery is underway

What Moved

Toronto's spring housing market came alive in May, with multiple-offer scenarios returning to desirable neighbourhoods for the first time since early 2022. TRREB data showed sales up 22% year-over-year in the GTA, while the sales-to-new-listings ratio tightened into seller's territory. Average prices remained below 2022 peaks but the trend had decisively turned upward.

Why It Matters

The return of competitive bidding confirmed that the housing correction had troughed and the recovery cycle had begun. For private real estate investors, this validated development-stage bets placed during the 2023 downturn. More importantly, it signalled that the BoC's anticipated rate cuts would pour fuel on an already warming market — creating both opportunity and urgency.

Signal to Watch

Condo market absorption rates deserved close attention. Detached homes were leading the recovery, but the condo segment — where investor supply overhang was greatest — would determine whether the recovery was broad-based or segmented.

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