Monday Market Minute | Jan 15, 2024

PE fundraising shows early thaw after a brutal 2023

What Moved

Canadian private equity fund managers began re-entering the fundraising market in January, encouraged by stabilizing rates and improving LP sentiment. CVCA data showed 2023 had been the weakest fundraising year since 2019, with many GPs extending timelines or reducing target sizes. Early 2024 conversations suggested a recalibration rather than a continued drought.

Why It Matters

PE fundraising conditions dictated deal flow downstream. Funds that closed in early 2024 would deploy capital into a market with depressed valuations and motivated sellers — a historically attractive vintage profile. For private market allocators, the question was whether to commit early to managers entering what could be a recovery-vintage cycle.

Signal to Watch

Q1 close data from CVCA would confirm whether the thaw was real or seasonal optimism. Watch for mid-market Canadian managers ($100M–$500M targets) — they typically led the fundraising recovery in prior cycles.

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