Monday Market Minute | Jun 26, 2023

Federal infrastructure commitments create a multi-decade deployment opportunity

What Moved

The federal government reaffirmed its commitment to the Canada Infrastructure Bank's mandate and incremental infrastructure spending across transit, clean energy, and broadband. Provincial governments in Ontario and British Columbia added their own multi-billion-dollar commitments. The combined infrastructure pipeline — spanning transit expansions, water treatment, renewable energy, and digital connectivity — represented hundreds of billions in planned spending over the next decade, much of it structured through public-private partnerships.

Why It Matters

Infrastructure investing offered Canadian private markets investors something rare in 2023: long-duration, inflation-linked cash flows with government-backed counterparties. Unlike housing or private credit, infrastructure returns were largely uncorrelated with the BoC's rate path. Toll roads, contracted utilities, and essential services generated predictable income regardless of whether rates sat at 3% or 5%. The P3 model also provided structural protections — construction risk was typically borne by developers, while institutional investors entered at the operational stage with contracted revenues.

Signal to Watch

Whether the Canada Infrastructure Bank would increase its use of private capital co-investment structures, which would expand the opportunity set for institutional and HNW investors beyond the traditional pension fund monopoly.

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