Monday Market Minute | Apr 10, 2023

Housing recovery gains traction as spring listings meet pent-up demand

What Moved

CREA reported that March home sales rose 1.4% month-over-month nationally, marking the third consecutive monthly gain. The GTA was the standout, with sales up over 40% from the January trough, though still well below the frenzy levels of early 2022. Average prices in key markets had stabilized and were beginning to tick upward. New listings remained tight, creating competitive conditions in desirable segments despite the elevated rate environment.

Why It Matters

The housing recovery directly affected multiple private markets strategies. MIC portfolios saw improving collateral values, supporting LTV ratios. Private REIT managers who had marked down NAVs began to see comparable sales data justifying stabilization. For construction lenders, the spring recovery provided confidence that completed projects would find buyers — a critical variable for development loan underwriting. Immigration-driven demand, running at record levels, provided a structural floor under housing fundamentals.

Signal to Watch

Whether the recovery was broad-based or concentrated in the sub-$1M segment, where first-time buyers and investors competed most intensely. A bifurcated market would have different implications for luxury-focused versus broad-market private real estate strategies.

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