Monday Market Minute | Mar 20, 2023

Credit Suisse absorbed by UBS as the banking crisis goes global

What Moved

Swiss authorities brokered a forced merger of Credit Suisse into UBS on Sunday, March 19 — a $3.25 billion rescue that wiped out $17 billion in AT1 bonds, shocking credit markets. The SVB contagion had crossed the Atlantic. North American markets opened Monday with renewed banking anxiety, though Canadian bank CDS spreads had already begun to stabilize. GoC bond yields plunged as flight-to-quality intensified, with the 2-year falling over 50bps from its pre-SVB level.

Why It Matters

The AT1 wipeout sent a specific signal to Canadian private markets investors: subordination matters. In alternative credit structures — whether private debt funds, MICs, or structured products — understanding where you sit in the capital stack was no longer an academic exercise. The episode reinforced the value of senior-secured private credit with hard collateral. Canadian private lenders with first-mortgage positions and conservative LTVs were insulated from the turmoil entirely.

Signal to Watch

Whether the bond yield collapse would trigger a wave of private credit refinancing as borrowers attempted to lock in lower benchmarks, or whether lender caution would keep private credit spreads elevated.

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